103 / America, where are you headed?
Reading Peter Hartcher's article today about the imminent decline of the US, you would be excused for being confused, if you have - as I did - just read the TIME article with the opposite message.
"Evidence is
accumulating that we have reached a civilisational turning point. The aftermath
of the global financial crisis is showing strong signs it was the inflection
point where the decline of the West accelerated and the rise of the great, new,
poor powers became nearer and more assured" says Hartcher (An empire in decline as the world turns upside down, SMH)
Not so, says Andres Martinez (The next American Century, TIME). Doomsayers continue
to decry America's decline. This isn't new. As far back as 1988 the commentariat latched onto the warning that America ran the risk of "imperial
overstretch" - (but) the awkward and enduring fact (is) that the sum total of
the United States' global interests and obligations is nowadays far larger than
the country's power to defend all simultaneously.
"What happened?
Well, the Berlin Wall collapsed, much of the world embraced market capitalism,
and the U.S. shrank the globe and took it online with a revolutionary new
technology that strengthens its cultural dominance. Meanwhile, the cost of
keeping the Pax Americana has become far lighter. Despite the nation's two
long-running commitments in Afghanistan and Iraq, the 288,000 American service
members posted or deployed overseas and a defense budget of 4.6% of GDP are
near post–World War II lows (in 1987 the corresponding figures were 524,000
service members overseas and a defense budget in excess of 6% of GDP). And this
historically modest investment dwarfs the military spending of the next nine
powers combined."
The Pax Americana (American Peace) as a measure of the U.S.s staying power on the world stage! Interesting times.
I'll come back to this blog in 50 years.