Today a newspaper article declares the war in Afghanistan unwinnable (Soldier killed in 'unwinnable' war) where Hugh White of the Lowy Institute and the Australian National University said he did not believe that winning or losing in Afghanistan would change the terrorism situation in Indonesia or anywhere else. Furthermore, he does not believe there is a reasonable chance of winning the war, neither does he think the government believes the war is winnable. Hear! Hear!

LET ME HAVE YOUR SCENARIO OF AFGHANISTAN IF PACIFISM TOOK HOLD.  WHAT WOULD YOU PREDICT?

How are the Afghans, and/or the Taliban our enemies? When did they ever attack us? … Sure, they are sheltering terrorists; or probably not … it appears Bin Laden is protected by local tribes in Pakistan, just across the border from Afghanistan.

AFGHANISTAN  WAS A TERRORIST STATE RUN BY TERRORISTS. 

Well no, it wasn’t. The Taliban were and are an internal force. The terrorism we’re talking about, is directed against the West. Afghanistan was not attacked because the Taliban suppressed women, but because they were harbouring Bin Laden.

Again, the Taliban receive support … from the US! In form of the US being the greatest market for their heroin. Help the Afghans with infrastructure and alternative crops to opium. Then pursue the actual terrorists … all the while sponsor Afghanistan's security needs … without waging that wretched war.

HAVE YOU MISSED THAT THE US IS DESTROYING OPIUM CROPS AND HELPING TO ESTABLISH ALTERNATIVE CROPS?

They did, true; patently, though, not enough … because 90% of world production of opium crops still is grown in Afghanistan. (These days that policy of destroying the opium crops is considered controversial.)

HAVE YOU MISSED THE US IS POURING IN HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF DOLLARS TO REBUILD INFRASTRUCTURE.

Same with infrastructure-building … not enough, compared to the amounts spent on the war. Apparently the spending is not enough even to just replace what the war has destroyed (the key here is the word ‘re’-build … the US are repairing their own damage.)

There is a problem with the Afghan war: One day you have an enemy, the next day they disappear … when you move on, they're back. It is a scenario similar to Vietnam. I travelled in Afghanistan 35 years ago. You know what? Most men were armed, they all carried a gun. They are fierce and proud. You can't tame those people. Even Genghis Khan couldn't, the Russians tried … the US will not succeed either. Furthermore, the Taliban (as bad as they are) are an internal problem. A war against the Afghans will not be won. But why even try? Pursue the terrorists, leave the Afghans alone. Get out. Now … or in ten years' time with a bloody nose.

This was written in December 2005 / January 2006